Putting horses for a living
If you want to make a living out of placing horses, you must take a professional approach to selecting “false favorites,” or horses that are not justified in their position as favorites for a particular breed.
Up to 90% of all punters base their selections solely on form, leading to such horses being overstakes and therefore a potential laying opportunity. While the shape of a horse counts in its favor to a certain extent, it is not the be all and end all.
Take a look at today’s race card and pick your low-priced bookmaker favorites for every race at odds less than 4/1. In this article we will try to identify some factors that suggest that the horse is, in fact, a “false favourite” and a potential putting opportunity.
going. Ground conditions are our first port of call. Some horses are content to run on any type of terrain, but many prefer one type to another. We want to find a favorite who has never run a particular event before, or a favorite with a poor record in this type of event.
Distance. The second most important factor in identifying potential laying opportunities is the length of the run. Watch for favorites that are increasing the distance for the first time or a horse that has a poor record at this particular distance.
Experience. If the horse is a short-term favorite even though the race is his first race, then he should be earmarked as a potential start. In this situation, the horse is usually two years old and entering a maiden race. First time horses at this age are impossible to judge and will be priced based on whether the owner paid top dollar for them or has a popular trainer.
Weight. If the favorite is running in a handicap race and is carrying a lot more weight for the first time, this could affect his chances.
Date since last run. If a horse hasn’t raced for 60 days, it’s like a soccer player who lacks match practice! Similarly, if a horse starts racing again within four days of his last race, he may not have fully recovered. However, some horses are fully capable of running multiple days in a row, so be sure to check past race history.
Field size. The more horses there are in a race, the greater the chance that they will get in each other’s way. This is particularly true of maiden races.
Opposition. Instead of analyzing the form of other horses in the race, it quickly scans the race history to try to find one with similar ability to the favourite. You can use the checklist above to try to see if there is a challenger worthy of the favorite also running in the race.
Of course, this is not a definitive guide to finding a favorite losing horse that will put up winning horses from time to time. This is unavoidable and part of putting horses. When this happens, study the race in more detail and see if there was anything you missed first. Learn from your mistakes and move on to the next placement opportunity.
Start with paper trading, i.e. don’t bet with real money and then move to betting with small stakes. Once you become familiar with the art of putting up horses and spotting potential losing favorites, you can increase your bets accordingly as your bank grows.