Sports

Profitable Correlated Parlay Strategies

Parlay betting is one of the most profitable products that sportsbooks can offer their customers. When bettors place a straight bet, the theoretical house hold is 4.5%. On combination bets, this profit margin is effectively multiplied by the number of bets or legs included in the combination. So, in a two-team parlay, the bookmaker could expect to win 9% of all money wagered. Given the math, it’s easy to see why sportsbooks would be better off attracting customers to place these types of bets.

Although parlays are generally money makers for sportsbooks, there is one big exception to the rule: correlated parlays. A parlay is considered correlated when the outcome of one of the parlay bets would have a considerable influence on the outcome of another parlay bet.

To illustrate this point, I’ll use an obvious example from the NFL with AFC betting straight up and Super Bowl betting straight up. If you bet the New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl, they obviously must have won the AFC championship to make it to the Super Bowl, so AFC outright is 100% correlated with Super Bowl outright. Combining these bets is such an obvious winning strategy that no bookmaker will allow you to place them.

Now let’s take a look at some less correlated accumulator bets that sportsbooks and local sportsbooks will allow you to place. Consider an NCAA football game in which USC is a 35.5-point favorite to beat Fresno State, and the game’s over-under is 47. For USC to cover the 35.5-point difference, it would have to score at least 36 points. If they are successful in doing so, then you should seriously consider betting that the game goes over 47 as well, as USC’s coverage would give them an early 36-point lead towards the end of the game. In fact, if Fresno manages to get just one touchdown, it will automatically win the top bet if USC covers the spread.

The above example is a popular type of parlay correlated between betting the favorite and betting the total. There is an equally strong correlation between betting the underdog and betting the total. Negative correlations have been shown to exist if you try to combine the favorite and the underdog, or the underdog and the overdog in a parlay. I highly recommend staying away from these “anti-correlated parlays” unless your strategy is to lose money as fast as possible!

The higher the proportion of the total to spread the stronger correlation. The general rule of thumb is that if you divide the spread by the total and get a number greater than 0.35, you could blindly bet these correlated parlays and make money in the long run.

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